As indicated by typical sales data, the demand for gold related products seems to be bouncing back but for diamond and moissanite jewels continuingly declining in the past several years. The direct driver may be the recent bouncing back of gold price. The performance of diamond and stone jewels may present the same determining factors as in other retail sectors.  

Sector’s Current, Trend, Causes behind trend, and Future

Current and Trend

1. The demand for diamond and moissanite jewelry products in US market seems to have been weak and presented downturn trend in the past three years as indicated by the continuingly declining same store sales of those typical retailers in this sector.

2. It seems that demand for gold jewelry and gold related products may have been re-bounding back since 2017as indicated by slowing down decrease or even an increase in gold related jewelry during the same period.

3. International market of diamond jewelry seems to be presenting the same trend, as we are seeing in US market, probably as a result of receiving impacts from similar factors, which seem different as they are in other US retail sectors.

4. We have seen significant increase in demand for gold product and in gold price in China market since 2016.

5. As a response to the soft same store sales/traffic, we have seen increasing promotion activities from some of retailers while others, especially those retailers who can control production costs, managed to lower production costs to deal with shrinking profitability due to declining sales.

Causes behind the trend

1. The products in this sector should have been fundamentally divided by demand for consumption and demand for investment.

2. Therefore the demand for jewelry should have been influenced not only by consumer related factors such as population growth and household income but also by prediction of price of products.

3. The decline in sale of diamond jewelry store may also partially be caused by slowing down mall traffic while, more likely, it implies a general decline in purchasing power of consumers due to a slower growth than expected in salaries of employees or a feeling of shrinking wealth for wealthy people as a result of cease of quantitative easing policy.

4. Increasing demand for gold related products may have been supported by the recent increase in gold price.

Industry Future

1. We will probably see continuingly weak in sales of diamond products of companies in this industry. However, demand for gold products may grow as gold price bounced back.

General Financial Performance of Companies In the Sector

It seems that, based on the typical company data, the demand for diamond in North America market in the past two years has been weak as indicated by the continuingly declining same store sales ( around 3% annually in 2017 and 2016). We have seen a similar trend in international market during the same period of time. However, it seems that declining demand for gold-related jewelry may have gain support as further stabilization of gold price in 2017.

Facing the declining sales, companies with own manufacturing have managed to lower product costs to keep profitability. However, for pure retailers their profitability has been seen hurt due to deleverage of expenses (store related expenses) as the sales decreased.

The typical companies’ operating margin went down from 14% to 12% in 2017. Companies’ cash flow thus significantly decreased during the same period.

The typical average stock price/cash flow ratio is about 21.

Looking for  multiples to help you make decisions in pricing of PE, M&A, or distressed debt transactions?

Please click the button below.